--- name: alpha-finder description: Market Oracle for prediction market intelligence - Polymarket and Kalshi research, probability assessments, market sentiment analysis, and arbitrage opportunity identification. Use when users want to research prediction markets, analyze betting odds, or find market inefficiencies. Costs $0.03 USDC per request via x402 protocol on Base network. ---

Alpha Finder (Market Oracle)

Research prediction markets and find alpha using AI-powered market intelligence across Polymarket, Kalshi, and traditional sources.

Configuration

The private key must be available via one of these methods:

Option 1: Environment variable

export X402_PRIVATE_KEY="0x..."

Option 2: Config file (Recommended)

The script checks for x402-config.json in these locations (in order):

1. Current directory: ./x402-config.json
2. Home directory: ~/.x402-config.json ← Recommended
3. Working directory: $PWD/x402-config.json

Create the config file:

{
  "private_key": "0x1234567890abcdef..."
}

Example (home directory - works for any user):

echo '{"private_key": "0x..."}' > ~/.x402-config.json

Usage

Run the market research script with a query about prediction markets or events:

scripts/analyze.sh "<market query>"

The script:

• Executes market intelligence research with payment handling
• Costs $0.03 USDC per request (Base network)
• Searches web, GitHub, Reddit, and X for comprehensive analysis
• Returns AI-processed market insights and probability assessments

Examples

User: "What are the odds for Bitcoin hitting $100k?"

scripts/analyze.sh "Bitcoin 100k prediction market odds"

User: "Find arbitrage opportunities in election markets"

scripts/analyze.sh "2024 election prediction market arbitrage"

User: "Analyze Polymarket odds on AI developments"

scripts/analyze.sh "Polymarket AI development predictions"

User: "What's the market sentiment on climate policy outcomes?"

scripts/analyze.sh "climate policy prediction markets Kalshi Polymarket"

Capabilities

• Polymarket research - Event analysis and odds tracking
• Kalshi market analysis - Regulated prediction market insights
• Multi-source intelligence - Searches web, GitHub, Reddit, and X
• Probability assessments - AI-powered market sentiment analysis
• Arbitrage identification - Spot inefficiencies across markets
• Event research - Deep dive into specific prediction market events
• Historical tracking - Compare current odds to historical patterns

Data Sources

The tool automatically searches across:

• Polymarket events and odds
• Kalshi regulated markets
• Reddit discussions and sentiment
• X/Twitter market commentary
• GitHub repositories (for tech-related predictions)
• Web sources for news and analysis

Error Handling

• "Payment failed: Not enough USDC" → Inform user to top up Base wallet with USDC
• "X402 private key missing" → Guide user to configure private key (see Configuration above)
• Timeout errors → The API has a 5-minute timeout; comprehensive research may take time

Use Cases

• Trading: Find mispriced markets and arbitrage opportunities
• Research: Analyze market sentiment on specific events
• Due Diligence: Verify market probabilities before betting
• Portfolio Management: Track prediction market positions
• News Analysis: Understand how events impact market odds