--- name: cryptocurrency-trader description: Production-grade AI trading agent for cryptocurrency markets with advanced mathematical modeling, multi-layer validation, probabilistic analysis, and zero-hallucination tolerance. Implements Bayesian inference, Monte Carlo simulations, advanced risk metrics (VaR, CVaR, Sharpe), chart pattern recognition, and comprehensive cross-verification for real-world trading application. ---

Cryptocurrency Trading Agent Skill

Purpose

Provide production-grade cryptocurrency trading analysis with mathematical rigor, multi-layer validation, and comprehensive risk assessment. Designed for real-world trading application with zero-hallucination tolerance through 6-stage validation pipeline.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when users request:

• Analysis of specific cryptocurrency trading pairs (e.g., BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT)
• Market scanning to find best trading opportunities
• Comprehensive risk assessment with probabilistic modeling
• Trading signals with advanced pattern recognition
• Professional risk metrics (VaR, CVaR, Sharpe, Sortino)
• Monte Carlo simulations for scenario analysis
• Bayesian probability calculations for signal confidence

Core Capabilities

Validation & Accuracy

• 6-stage validation pipeline with zero-hallucination tolerance
• Statistical anomaly detection (Z-score, IQR, Benford's Law)
• Cross-verification across multiple timeframes
• 14 circuit breakers to prevent invalid signals

Analysis Methods

• Bayesian inference for probability calculations
• Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 scenarios)
• GARCH volatility forecasting
• Advanced chart pattern recognition
• Multi-timeframe consensus (15m, 1h, 4h)

Risk Management

• Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional VaR (CVaR)
• Risk-adjusted metrics (Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar)
• Kelly Criterion position sizing
• Automated stop-loss and take-profit calculation

Detailed capabilities: See references/advanced-capabilities.md

Prerequisites

Ensure the following before using this skill:

1. Python 3.8+ environment available
2. Internet connection for real-time market data
3. Required packages installed: pip install -r requirements.txt
4. User's account balance known for position sizing

How to Use This Skill

Quick Start Commands

Analyze a specific cryptocurrency:

python skill.py analyze BTC/USDT --balance 10000

Scan market for best opportunities:

python skill.py scan --top 5 --balance 10000

Interactive mode for exploration:

python skill.py interactive --balance 10000

Default Parameters

• Balance: If not specified by user, use --balance 10000
• Timeframes: 15m, 1h, 4h (automatically analyzed)
• Risk per trade: 2% of balance (enforced by default)
• Minimum risk/reward: 1.5:1 (validated by circuit breakers)

Common Trading Pairs

Major: BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT, BNB/USDT, SOL/USDT, XRP/USDT AI Tokens: RENDER/USDT, FET/USDT, AGIX/USDT Layer 1: ADA/USDT, AVAX/USDT, DOT/USDT Layer 2: MATIC/USDT, ARB/USDT, OP/USDT DeFi: UNI/USDT, AAVE/USDT, LINK/USDT Meme: DOGE/USDT, SHIB/USDT, PEPE/USDT

Workflow

1. Gather Information

- Ask user for trading pair (if analyzing specific symbol) - Ask for account balance (or use default $10,000) - Confirm user wants production-grade analysis

1. Execute Analysis

- Run appropriate command (analyze, scan, or interactive) - Wait for comprehensive analysis to complete - System automatically validates through 6 stages

1. Present Results

- Display trading signal (LONG/SHORT/NO_TRADE) - Show confidence level and execution readiness - Explain entry, stop-loss, and take-profit prices - Present risk metrics and position sizing - Highlight validation status (6/6 passed = execution ready)

1. Interpret Output

- Reference references/output-interpretation.md for detailed guidance - Translate technical metrics into user-friendly language - Explain risk/reward in simple terms - Always include risk warnings

1. Handle Edge Cases

- If execution_ready = NO: Explain validation failures - If confidence <40%: Recommend waiting for better opportunity - If circuit breakers triggered: Explain specific issue - If network errors: Suggest retry with exponential backoff

Output Structure

Trading Signal:

• Action: LONG/SHORT/NO_TRADE
• Confidence: 0-95% (integer only, no false precision)
• Entry Price: Recommended entry point
• Stop Loss: Risk management exit (always required)
• Take Profit: Profit target
• Risk/Reward: Minimum 1.5:1 ratio

Probabilistic Analysis:

• Bayesian probabilities (bullish/bearish)
• Monte Carlo profit probability
• Signal strength (WEAK/MODERATE/STRONG)
• Pattern bias confirmation

Risk Assessment:

• VaR and CVaR (Value at Risk metrics)
• Sharpe/Sortino/Calmar ratios
• Max drawdown and win rate
• Profit factor

Position Sizing:

• Standard (2% risk rule) - recommended
• Kelly Conservative - mathematically optimal
• Kelly Aggressive - higher risk/reward
• Trading fees estimate

Validation Status:

• Stages passed (must be 6/6 for execution ready)
• Circuit breakers triggered (if any)
• Warnings and critical failures

Detailed interpretation: See references/output-interpretation.md

Presenting Results to Users

Language Guidelines

Use beginner-friendly explanations:

• "LONG" → "Buy now, sell higher later"
• "SHORT" → "Sell now, buy back cheaper later"
• "Stop Loss" → "Automatic exit to limit loss if wrong"
• "Confidence %" → "How certain we are (higher = better)"
• "Risk/Reward" → "For every $1 risked, potential $X profit"

Required Risk Warnings

ALWAYS include these reminders:

• Markets are unpredictable - perfect analysis can still be wrong
• Start with small amounts to learn
• Never risk more than 2% per trade (enforced automatically)
• Always use stop losses
• This is analysis, NOT financial advice
• Past performance does NOT guarantee future results
• User is solely responsible for all trading decisions

When NOT to Trade

Advise users to avoid trading when:

• Validation status <6/6 passed
• Execution Ready flag = NO
• Confidence <60% for moderate signals, <70% for strong
• User doesn't understand the analysis
• User can't afford potential loss
• High emotional stress or fatigue

Advanced Usage

Programmatic Integration

For custom workflows, import directly:

from scripts.trading_agent_refactored import TradingAgent

agent = TradingAgent(balance=10000)
analysis = agent.comprehensive_analysis('BTC/USDT')
print(analysis['final_recommendation'])

See example_usage.py for 5 comprehensive examples.

Configuration

Customize behavior via config.yaml:

• Validation strictness (strict vs normal mode)
• Risk parameters (max risk, position limits)
• Circuit breaker thresholds
• Timeframe preferences

Testing

Verify installation and functionality:

# Run compatibility test
./test_claude_code_compat.sh

# Run comprehensive tests
python -m pytest tests/

Reference Documentation

• references/advanced-capabilities.md - Detailed technical capabilities
• references/output-interpretation.md - Comprehensive output guide
• references/optimization.md - Trading optimization strategies
• references/protocol.md - Usage protocols and best practices
• references/psychology.md - Trading psychology principles
• references/user-guide.md - End-user documentation
• references/technical-docs/ - Implementation details and bug reports

Architecture

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