--- name: polymarket-elon-tweets description: 'Trade Polymarket "Elon Musk # tweets" markets using XTracker post count data. Buys adjacent range buckets when combined cost < $1 for structural edge. Use when user wants to trade tweet count markets, automate Elon tweet bets, check XTracker stats, or run noovd-style trading.' metadata: author: Simmer (@simmer_markets) version: "1.1.0" displayName: Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader difficulty: advanced attribution: Strategy inspired by @noovd ---

Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader

Trade "Elon Musk # tweets" markets on Polymarket using XTracker post count data.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:

• Trade Elon Musk tweet count markets automatically
• Set up @noovd-style bucket trading
• Check XTracker pace and stats for current tweet events
• Monitor and exit existing tweet market positions
• Configure bucket spread or entry thresholds

How the Strategy Works

Polymarket runs weekly "How many tweets will Elon post?" events with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy:

1. Get XTracker pace — XTracker tracks Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total
2. Find center bucket — The bucket containing XTracker's projected pace
3. Buy adjacent buckets — Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread)
4. Check combined cost — Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold)
5. One bucket pays $1 — When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs

Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. Install the Simmer SDK

```bash pip install simmer-sdk ```

1. Ask for Simmer API key

- They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab - Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY

1. Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)

- This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC) - Store in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY - The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed

1. Ask about settings (or confirm defaults)

- Max bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90¢) - Max position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00) - Bucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center ± 1) - Exit threshold: When to sell (default 65¢)

1. Save settings to config.json or environment variables

1. Set up cron (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)

Configuration

| Setting | Env Variable | Config Key | Default | Description | |---------|-------------|------------|---------|-------------| | Max bucket sum | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_BUCKET_SUM | max_bucket_sum | 0.90 | Only buy if cluster prices sum < this | | Max position | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_POSITION | max_position_usd | 5.00 | Maximum USD per bucket | | Bucket spread | SIMMER_ELON_BUCKET_SPREAD | bucket_spread | 1 | Neighbors on each side (1 = 3 buckets) | | Smart sizing % | SIMMER_ELON_SIZING_PCT | sizing_pct | 0.05 | % of balance per trade | | Max trades/run | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_TRADES | max_trades_per_run | 6 | Maximum trades per scan cycle | | Exit threshold | SIMMER_ELON_EXIT | exit_threshold | 0.65 | Sell when bucket price above this | | Slippage max | SIMMER_ELON_SLIPPAGE_MAX | slippage_max_pct | 0.05 | Skip trade if slippage exceeds this | | Min position | SIMMER_ELON_MIN_POSITION | min_position_usd | 2.00 | Floor for smart sizing (USD) | | Data source | SIMMER_ELON_DATA_SOURCE | data_source | xtracker | Data source (xtracker) |

Config priority: config.json > environment variables > defaults.

Quick Commands

# Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py

# Detailed position list
python scripts/status.py --positions

API Reference:

• Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
• Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
• Portfolio: GET /api/sdk/portfolio
• Positions: GET /api/sdk/positions

Running the Skill

# Dry run (default — shows opportunities, no trades)
python elon_tweets.py

# Execute real trades
python elon_tweets.py --live

# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)
python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing

# Show XTracker stats only
python elon_tweets.py --stats

# Check positions only
python elon_tweets.py --positions

# View config
python elon_tweets.py --config

# Update config
python elon_tweets.py --set max_position_usd=10.00

# Disable safeguards (not recommended)
python elon_tweets.py --no-safeguards

# Quiet mode — only output on trades/errors (ideal for cron)
python elon_tweets.py --live --quiet

# Combine: frequent scanning, minimal noise
python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet

How It Works

Each cycle the script:

1. Fetches active XTracker trackings for Elon Musk tweet events
2. Gets real-time stats: current count, projected pace, days remaining
3. Searches Simmer for matching tweet count markets (auto-imports if missing)
4. Finds the bucket matching XTracker's pace projection
5. Evaluates adjacent buckets (center ± spread)
6. Entry: If sum of cluster prices < max_bucket_sum → BUY each bucket
7. Exit: Checks open positions, sells if any bucket price > exit_threshold
8. Safeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage
9. Tagging: All trades tagged with sdk:elon-tweets for tracking

Auto-Import

If tweet count markets aren't on Simmer yet, the skill automatically imports them:

• Derives the Polymarket event URL from the XTracker tracking title
• Uses the SDK import endpoint (supports multi-outcome events)
• Imports all outcome buckets as a group
• Counts as 1 daily import regardless of bucket count

Smart Sizing

With --smart-sizing, position size is calculated as:

• 5% of available USDC balance (configurable via sizing_pct)
• Capped at max position setting ($5.00 default)
• Falls back to fixed size if portfolio unavailable

Safeguards

Before trading, the skill checks:

• Flip-flop warning: Skips if you've been reversing too much
• Slippage: Skips if estimated slippage > 15%
• Market status: Skips closed or resolved markets
• Extreme prices: Skips buckets priced > 98% or < 2%

Disable with --no-safeguards (not recommended).

Source Tagging

All trades are tagged with source: "sdk:elon-tweets". This means:

• Portfolio shows breakdown by strategy
• Other skills won't sell your tweet positions
• You can track tweet trading P&L separately

Example Output

🐦 Simmer Elon Tweet Trader
==================================================

⚙️ Configuration:
  Max bucket sum:  $0.90
  Max position:    $5.00
  Bucket spread:   1 (center ± 1 = 3 buckets)
  Exit threshold:  65%
  Data source:     xtracker

📊 XTracker Stats:
  Tracking: Elon Musk # tweets Feb 13 - Feb 20
  Current count: 187 posts
  Pace: 243 projected
  Days remaining: 2.3

🎯 Target cluster: 240-259 (center) + 220-239, 260-279
  240-259: $0.35
  220-239: $0.22
  260-279: $0.18
  Cluster sum: $0.75 (< $0.90 threshold) ✅

  Executing trades...
  ✅ Bought 14.3 shares of 240-259 @ $0.35
  ✅ Bought 22.7 shares of 220-239 @ $0.22
  ✅ Bought 27.8 shares of 260-279 @ $0.18

📊 Summary:
  Events scanned: 2
  Clusters evaluated: 2
  Trades executed: 3
  Exits: 0

Troubleshooting

"No XTracker trackings found"

• XTracker may not have active Elon tweet events
• New events usually start on Wednesdays/Thursdays

"Cluster sum $X.XX exceeds threshold"

• Buckets are too expensive — edge is too thin
• Wait for prices to drop or widen bucket_spread

"No matching Simmer markets found"

• Markets may not be imported yet — skill will auto-import on next run
• Check that your API key has import capacity (10/day free, 50/day Pro)

"Safeguard blocked: flip-flop warning"

• You've been changing direction too much on this market
• Wait before trading again

...